Something curious happened while we were not paying much attention: Rock, popular music's dominant global force for decades, has reached the age when the average person begins to contemplate retiring, feeling perhaps vital still, but not as when the brio of youth gave it its verve. (When was the last time a new rock band captured the attention of the masses?) So, taking this as a starting point, it might be a good opportunity to try to analyze where the record industry is in general and where it could be headed in the not too distant future.
Due to the many ways in which technology has impacted our lives, it's interesting to observe the various attempts to discern how we will consume music as the music industry undergoes more changes in its structure. It's important to point out that the music business operates in a slightly different realm than other areas of entertainment and popular culture: despite streaming, people still watch TV, go to the movies and even purchase movies and TV series in physical formats, while the consumption of music in physical form—which was the main form of distribution during the second part of the 20th century in particular—has diminished considerably, despite the recent (relative) boom of vinyl. (And notwithstanding the various options offered by technology, live concerts still remain the main revenue source for artists at all levels.)
There's talk of various subscription models (a la cable TV) as MP3 sales decrease continuously and compact discs are relegated to the stuff of memories. (Beginning a few years ago, computer manufacturers stopped adding the optical disc drives necessary to read CDs / DVDs, the first indication of a possible future physical obsolescence.) But if there is something that cannot be ignored it's that the factors that invariably determine how the masses consume music are price and convenience. Frequently, sound quality is brought up as driving the commercial behavior of consumers (and the audiophile community is a strong example), but the reality is that the other two factors mentioned above have prevailed more often than not when the public decides how to spend its money vis-a-vis music.
What is undeniable is that we are experiencing a historical moment, one in which there is more access than ever to all kinds of music, regardless of genre or style. However, despite appearances, it seems that no particular form of music will be dominant as we see specialized niches pop up like never before. This could open the door to all kinds of innovations in terms of both art and commerce. And if the last few years have taught us anything, it's that change might be right around the corner.
Will it be minor or all encompassing? The only thing we can dare predict is that the erroneously considered dead and buried major record labels, still in possession of billions of dollars at their disposal which they've been using to finance the likes of Spotify, as they manage to become profitable (along with the catalogs of thousands of popular artists), as well as the mighty Internet, will be involved in one way or another in how consumers enjoy pre-recorded music.
"We'll see," said the blind man.
